View source for Tracking Net Performance Accurately

== Tracking Net Performance Accurately: A Beginner's Guide ==

Welcome to trading. When you start holding assets in the [[Spot market]] while also experimenting with derivatives like a [[Futures contract]], tracking your true financial health becomes crucial. This guide focuses on practical steps to accurately measure how your total portfolio is performing, blending your physical holdings with your leveraged trades. The main takeaway for beginners is: always prioritize knowing your total [[Net Asset Value (NAV)]] rather than focusing only on the profit or loss of one account.

== Balancing Spot Holdings with Simple Futures Hedges ==

For beginners, the primary goal of using futures alongside spot holdings should be risk management, not aggressive speculation. A [[Futures contract]] allows you to take a short position (betting the price will fall) without selling your underlying spot asset.

=== Why Hedge? ===
Hedging protects your existing spot portfolio from temporary market downturns. If you own 1 Bitcoin (BTC) and are worried about a short-term correction, you can use futures to offset potential losses.

=== Practical Steps for Partial Hedging ===

1.  **Determine Spot Exposure:** Know exactly how much you hold in your [[Spot market]]. If you hold 1 ETH, that is your base exposure.
2.  **Calculate Hedge Size:** A partial hedge means you only protect a portion of your exposure. If you are 50% confident in a drop, you might hedge 50% of your spot position.
    *   Example: Hold 100 tokens. Hedge by opening a short futures position equivalent to 50 tokens.
3.  **Use Low Leverage Initially:** When opening futures positions, especially for hedging, use very low leverage (2x or 3x maximum). High leverage increases your [[Managing Liquidation Risk on Exchange|liquidation risk]] significantly. We recommend reviewing [[Example Trade Sizing with Low Leverage]] before proceeding.
4.  **Monitor Funding Rates:** If you are using [[Perpetual Futures Versus Fixed Date Contracts]], be aware of the funding rate. This fee paid between long and short traders can erode profits or increase hedging costs if you hold the hedge too long.
5.  **Unwind Simultaneously (When Appropriate):** When the market risk passes, close your futures hedge and return to being fully exposed in the spot market. This requires discipline in executing trade plans.

Remember that partial hedging reduces variance but does not eliminate risk. You are simply choosing which market direction you are most protected against.

== Using Technical Indicators for Timing ==

While hedging manages portfolio risk, technical indicators help you time when to adjust your spot holdings or when to open/close a hedge. Never rely on a single indicator; look for confluence. Always remember the risk of [[Avoiding False Signals from Technical Analysis]].

=== Relative Strength Index (RSI) ===
The [[RSI]] measures the speed and change of price movements.

*   Readings above 70 often suggest an asset is overbought; below 30 suggests it is oversold.
*   For hedging: If your spot asset is extremely overbought (RSI > 80), you might consider opening a small short hedge, anticipating a pullback. Review [[RSI Levels in Trending Versus Sideways Markets]] for context.
*   For spot entries: Look for [[Recognizing Oversold Conditions Safely]] (RSI < 30) when considering buying more spot assets.

=== Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) ===
The [[MACD]] helps identify momentum shifts.

*   A bullish crossover (MACD line crossing above the signal line) suggests increasing upward momentum. This might signal it is time to reduce a short hedge. Review [[Interpreting MACD Crossovers for Trades]].
*   Be cautious, as MACD can lag price action, especially in fast markets.

=== Bollinger Bands ===
[[Bollinger Bands]] show volatility. They consist of a middle moving average and two outer bands representing standard deviations.

*   When bands squeeze together, it suggests low volatility, often preceding a large move.
*   When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, it can signal a potential temporary top, justifying a small short hedge. See [[Bollinger Bands Volatility Interpretation]] for more detail on how to read expansion and contraction.

It is essential to combine these signals with an understanding of the overall trend structure, perhaps using [[Practical Application of Moving Averages]].

== Managing Trading Psychology and Risk ==

Accurate performance tracking is useless if poor trading psychology causes you to deviate from your plan. Beginners frequently fall prey to emotional decisions.

=== Common Pitfalls to Avoid ===

*   **Fear of Missing Out (FOMO):** Buying an asset simply because it is rapidly rising, ignoring technical signals or risk management rules.
*   **Revenge Trading:** Trying to immediately win back losses from a previous trade by taking on excessive risk. This leads directly to [[Avoiding Revenge Trading After Losses]].
*   **Overleverage:** Using too much margin on futures contracts. This drastically reduces your margin buffer and increases the chance of hitting your liquidation price, even on small adverse moves. Always set strict leverage caps.

=== Risk Management Checklist ===

Before entering any futures trade, confirm these points:

1.  Have I set a clear stop-loss?
2.  Is my position size appropriate for my total capital? (Refer to [[Setting Initial Risk Limits for New Traders]]).
3.  Do I understand the potential fees and the [[Understanding the Futures Premium]] if using perpetual contracts?

For deeper performance analysis, you can consult external resources like [https://cryptofutures.trading/index.php?title=How_to_Track_Your_Crypto_Futures_Trading_Performance_in_2024 How to Track Your Crypto Futures Trading Performance in 2024] or review general [[Key Performance Indicators]]. Always ensure you have strong security measures, such as [[Securing Two Factor Authentication Setup]].

== Practical Sizing and Performance Example ==

Accurate tracking requires calculating the net result across both spot and futures environments. We will use a simplified scenario focusing on a small position size.

Assume you hold 1 BTC in your [[Spot market]] valued at $50,000. You decide to hedge 0.5 BTC using a short [[Futures contract]] at a price of $50,100, using 2x leverage.

The table below illustrates a scenario where the market drops by 10% ($5,000).

{| class="wikitable"
! Component !! Initial Value/Action !! Value After 10% Drop
|-
| Spot BTC Holding (1 BTC) || $50,000 || $45,000 (Loss: $5,000)
|-
| Futures Hedge (Short 0.5 BTC @ 2x) || $25,050 Notional || Profit: Approx. $2,500 (before fees)
|-
| Net Portfolio Change || N/A || Loss: $5,000 - $2,500 = $2,500
|}

In this example, the partial hedge reduced the total loss from $5,000 to $2,500. This demonstrates how hedging smooths volatility. When exiting, you must consider [[Scaling Out of a Position Safely]] for both legs of the trade. Always track fees and slippage, as these affect the final realized profit, as detailed in [https://cryptofutures.trading/index.php?title=Asset_performance Asset performance].

== Conclusion ==

Tracking net performance means looking at your entire ecosystem—spot assets plus futures adjustments. Start small, use minimal leverage when hedging, rely on technical confluence (like combining [[RSI]] with [[MACD]]), and maintain strict discipline to avoid emotional trading. Understanding both [[Understanding Spot Market Versus Futures Contract]] mechanics and your own psychological responses is the key to long-term success.

[[Category:Crypto Spot & Futures Basics]]

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